Orders for PV frames may decline again next month. Against the backdrop of low processing fees, the profit margins of related enterprises may be further compressed [SMM analysis]

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SMM June 26th report:

PV aluminum extrusion: This week, sample enterprises of PV frames reported that they were negotiating next month's cooperation with module factories. Some leading PV frame extrusion enterprises in east China, southwest China, and Hebei reported that orders for next month were expected to decline. Production orders this week could not be connected with orders for next month. Additionally, some processing enterprises expected that the processing fee for PV frames might further decline, compressing corporate profitability and causing the operating rate to pull back.

Raw material prices: During the period (June 23, 2025 - June 26, 2025), the center of the average spot price of spot aluminum declined. The SMM A00 weekly average price was 20,583 yuan/mt, down 0.71% from the previous week's average. Overall, aluminum prices in the coming week will face tests from inventory turning point confirmation and off-season demand pressure, maintaining a fluctuating and weak trend in the short term, with certain pressure above 20,600-20,700 yuan/mt. Risk alerts: Macro aspects still require close attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US non-farm payrolls data, and the implementation effects of Chinese policies, which might stabilize aluminum prices and cause them to rebound slightly. It is expected that SHFE aluminum will operate within the range of 20,200-20,600 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum will fluctuate within the range of $2,530-$2,600/mt.

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